Technical analysis – Market pre-open 5th April 2016
On Monday ES generated a higher/overlapping Value Area. Intraday the Sellers have been active for four days now, see highlighted numbers, and although ES has stalled this activity has been Ineffective so far. Overnight, there has been weakness with ES printing back down to the low of this minor range but pre-open is holding 2033, the minor (16day) Support), see yesterday’s highlighted comments.
First Level Support = 1990 (38day poc)
Second Level Support = 1956.90 (1/2R off last year’s high)
Major Support (major) = ES 1870 (previous maj poc)
Key Charts: One of the key chart levels I discussed in Friday’s video was DAX 9740, the major poc. Today the chart has broken below that level.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 86% (from 89%), Nasdaq 76% (from 78%), R2000 80% (from 83%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly higher at 4.58. On 02/19 the ratio fell to 2.64 which was the lowest since November 2012. The ratio is still low compared to levels seen last year despite the strong market rally from the February low.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds: TLT – has held the Support at 126.70 (1/2R level), and printing above 128.43, the 3mn poc, in a strong price location. Futures indicate a higher open today.
Dollar Index: printing below the 97.40 poc in a weak price location and currently printing close to its lowest level since October.
Gold: GLD major poc is now 118.05. On Friday found Support at the previous poc at 115.50. Price below this level would suggest further weakness. Futures indicate a higher open today.
Oil: USO Sold off sharply at the end of last week and today has broken 9.23,1/2R off the February low. There is Support a little lower at 9.00, the 6mn poc.
EURUSD: found Support recently at 1.1085, the 1/2R off last year’s low and has rallied from there. On Friday printed its highest level since October.
