Technical analysis – Market pre-open 6th April 2016
Tuesday’s session generated a lower Value Area. ES held 2033, see previous comments, but intraday that minor poc has migrated higher 2041.00. Post-open price relative to that level could be a guide to ST strength/weakness.
Minor Support/Resistance = 2041.00 (minor poc)
First Level Support = 1990 (38day poc)
Second Level Support = 1956.90 (1/2R off last year’s high)
Major Support (major) = ES 1870 (previous maj poc)
Key Charts: DAX remains below 9740, the major poc, having broken below that level on Monday.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 82% (from 86%), Nasdaq 72% (from 76%), R2000 74% (from 80%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly lower at 4.49. On 02/19 the ratio fell to 2.64 which was the lowest since November 2012. The ratio is still low compared to levels seen last year despite the strong market rally from the February low.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds: TLT – has held the Support at 126.70 (1/2R level), and is printing above 128.43, the 3mn poc, in a strong price location. Printed a 27day high on Tuesday.
Dollar Index: printing below the 97.40 poc in a weak price location.
Gold: GLD major poc is now 118.05. On Friday found Support at the previous poc at 115.50. Price below this level would suggest further weakness.
Oil: USO Sold off sharply at the end of last week and on Tuesday reached the Support at 9.00, the 6mn poc which has not yet been broken.
EURUSD: found Support recently at 1.1085, the 1/2R off last year’s low and has rallied from there. On Friday printed its highest level since October.
