Technical analysis – Market pre-open 8th September 2015
There is significant Resistance on the Stock Index charts, see below, which may come into play this week if market rallies. Volatility remains high and pre-open today ES is higher and has retraced all of Friday’s decline. Breadth and price momentum still need to improve to be supportive but Sentiment (see below and eBook) suggests Bears increased significantly last week.
Major Resistance = 1978.50 (1/2R off this year’s high)
minor Resistance = 1972.00 dashed (minor VAH)
Major Support = 1870.00 (formerly the maj poc)
minor Support = 1932.00 (min poc)
ETFs: Important Resistance levels to watch this week (see eBook) = SPY 198.10; IWM 116.00; DIA 166.95. Price above these levels would be much stronger location.
CP Market Charts: all major Market Charts remain negative.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 13%, Nasdaq 21%, R2000 19%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 4.22, the lowest level since October 2013. This is a contrarian indicator.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: found Resistance 08/24 at 126.69 (1/2R off this year’s high) and sold off. Momentum (PriceOsc) is negative and down.
Dollar Index: printing above 94.67, the 12mn poc. Price below this level is weak price location. There is Resistance at 96.50 (1/2R off this year’s high) and today the chart is probing that level again. Price above here is strong location.
Gold GLD: chart rallied into mid August but has retraced from there. Price below 107.78, the 1/2R off July low, would be weaker price location. Momentum, although still positive is weakening.
Oil USO: printed a new low on 08/24 and then rallied very strongly from there to its highest level since late July. Momentum has been up and has just turned positive.
EURUSD: recently moved to a weaker LT price location below 1.1340 (12mn poc) which is now Resistance. The minor 1/2R off March low at 1.1083 provided Support last week but price below that level would suggest further weakness.
