Technical analysis – Market pre-open 9th May 2016
See previous comments. There is Support at 2041.00. So far at least, we have not seen a Value Area generated below that level. Time printed below 2041 would indicate further weakness.
First Level Resistance = 2086.00 (min poc)
First Level Support = 2041.00 (2mn poc)
Market Charts: the major U.S. Market Charts (Nyse, Nasdaq, R2000) stayed positive but the UK turned negative.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 64%, Nasdaq 49%, R2000 57%, UK 42%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 4.75. On 04/26 the ratio reached 5.27 which was the highest level since early January. On 02/19 the ratio fell to 2.64 which was the lowest since November 2012.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds: TLT moved sharply lower mid April but is now rallying back. The 7mn poc migrated to 128.47 and is now Support. There is minor Resistance at 131.82, the 1/2R off this year’s high.
Dollar Index: on Tuesday printed its lowest level since Jan 2015 but has rallied from there. Resistance at 94.79, the 2yr poc.
Gold: GLD – finsished the close close to the week’s high which was the highest level since Jan 2015 although cash indicates a lower open today.
Oil: USO – the 6mn poc recently migrated to 10.78 and this is Support that could could well be tested today.
EURUSD: in mid-April chart made a higher low just above 1.1198 (3yr poc) and last week printed its highest level since August. Support at 1.1198, the 3yr poc and as long as EURUSD holds this level it is in a strong price location.
