Large caps (SPY/ES) are out-performing Small-caps and have reached their 1/2R levels off this year’s high – see dashed line. Pre-open ES prints just below this level. Price printing time above these levels would be a sign of strength and Significant Buying marked above would be a positive and indicate higher. Today these levels could be Support or Resistance. In a downtrend, 1/2R off the high will often mark the high of the first rally so these levels will be closely monitored.
Support/Resistance today ES = 1978.50 (dashed) 1/2R off this year’s high
Support/Resistance today SPY = 198.10, 1/2R off this year’s high
maj Support = 1870.00 (formerly the maj poc)
Momentum (PriceOsc) remains negative and down for all four Stock Index ETFS.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 16% (from 10%), Nasdaq 16% (from 14%), R2000 17% (from 14%). These numbers have historically registered oversold. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly higher at 6.93. Tuesday’s 6.30 was the lowest level since October
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: found Resistance this week at 126.69 (1/2R off this year’s high) and has sold off. Futures indicate a higher open today for TLT.
Dollar Index: has recovered back above 94.67, the 12mn poc. Price below this level is weak price location. There is Resistance at 96.50 (1/2R off this year’s high).
Gold GLD: Closed at a 32day high on Monday but has fallen sharply from there.
Oil USO: closed at a new low on Monday but has rallied from there to close at a six day high on Thursday. Futures indicate a slightly lower open today for USO.
EURUSD: is today printing back below 1.1340 (12mn poc).
