Chartprofit eBook 19th April
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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
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Friday closed within Mon-Wed Hi-Lo range so no bias indicated on the weekly timeframe.
ES Analysis: The most recent imbalance is the Aggressive Selling marked last Monday therefore Long Trades are still eliminated for me until Significant Buying is marked again. ST Bulls would want to see ES holding and printing time above 1548.50, the 5mn poc. Price below that level is weak location.
Index ETFs: Chart POC levels to watch at the start of this week are IWM 90.44 and SPY 155.80. Again, price below these levels is weak location.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: KEY CHART. Earlier this month TLT printed a new high for the year but failed at the obvious Resistance at 123.42, the 1/2R off last July’s high. Chart reached that level again last week but has not exceeded it.
Oil USO: Last week printed its lowest level since June last year.
Gold GLD: I’ve been saying this is a weak chart since early February when it fell below its major poc. Has fallen steeply this month to its lowest level for two years.
Silver SLV: Likewise this chart. Has been weak since it double-failed at its maj poc in January and last week printed its lowest level since October 2010.
Dollar Index: KEY CHART. LT strong location above the 81.35 1/2R level. Momentum is negative but up. Is today attempting to print above the 2month poc at 82.75.
EURUSD: continues to print close to the 24mn poc at 1.3070 so difficult to gauge.
Watching particularly TLT and Dollar Index. Price location is not clear enough here to imply a bias for equities.
*********** BREADTH
Chartprofit Market Timing System stayed positive for Nyse, turned neutral for Nasdaq and turned neutral for UK
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 43% Nasdaq 39%, UK 50% Not supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
04/19: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was higher at 26.8% from previous week’s extreme19.3%. Bears% was lower at 48.2% from previous week’s extreme 54.5%.
04/19: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was lower at 47.4% (from 50.5%) and Bears% was unchanged at 20.6%.
04/19: Market Vane (advisers) poll was unchanged at 65 Five weeks ago it reached 69 which was the highest since 2007.
04/19: The NAAIM number (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was lower this week at 69.63 which is the lowest since w/e 30th Nov.
Mutual Fund Flow:
04/19: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio finished the week at 3.73 a 29day low. The 70day low for the ratio is 3.49.
04/19: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund inflows of $2.7 Billion in the week to 17th April.
04/19: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund inflows of $1.1 Billion in the week to 17th April.