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Both the LT and ST analysis remain positive. First sign of weakness would be “Effective” Selling marked in the ES analysis and that has not happened since mid December.
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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: Weak below the 117.15 major poc. Momentum has turned down.
Oil USO: two weeks ago broke below the 1/2R and poc Resistance around 34.17. This chart is in a weak price location. Momentum (although negative) has turned up.
Gold GLD: has shown weakness since it broke below 161.0, the major poc, three weeks ago. Has now printed its lowest level since July last year. Momentum (although negative) has turned up.
Silver SLV: recently printed its lowest level since August last year. Momentum (although negative) has turned up.
Dollar Index: In a strong price location above 81.35, the 1/2R off 2012 high.
EURUSD: Still in a weak price location below the 1.3117 poc. On Friday printed its lowest level since early December.
ES analysis:
Friday closed above Mon-Wed range high which indicates Buyers Active on the weekly timeframe. I marked Significant Buying once last week and no Significant Selling. Higher prices have not yet attracted a markable Response from the Sellers. “Effective” Selling marked below 1517.50 would be the first indication of weakness on the Longer Timeframe. The last four Value Areas have all printed above the 1517.50 poc which is strong price location.
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*********** BREADTH
Chartprofit Market Timing System remained positive for all Major Market Charts.
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 78%, Nasdaq 73%, UK 83%. Numbers >50 are supportive. Numbers >80 usually considered overbought.
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*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
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03/08: AAII (public poll) reported Bulls% higher at 31.1% (from 28.4%). And Bears% was also higher at 38.5% (from 36.6%). The Nett (Bulls-Bears) is at -7.4. Previous weeks Nett at -8.2 indicated more Bears than Bulls for the first time in fourteen weeks at that time.
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03/08: Investor’s Intelligence Bulls% was lower for the fourth week at 44.2% which is a thirteen week low. Bears% was unchanged at 21.1% which is the lowest since May last year.
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03/08: Market Vane (advisers) poll. Higher at 69 which is the highest since 2007.
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03/08: The NAAIM number (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) came in higher than last week at 90.15 (from 82.77). There has only been three readings higher than this in the database. The highest reading being 104.25 five weeks ago.
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Mutual Fund Flow:
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03/08: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 3.51. The 45day low for this number is 3.49. Rydex retail traders have not embraced this new high like they did at February’s new high. This indicator usually peaks with the market but currently it is at 50% of its twelve month range. In the ST that is most likely supportive. The highest reading in my database at 5.64 was in early April 2012.
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03/08: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund inflows of $5.7 Billion in the week to 6th March.
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03/08: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund inflows of $3.2 Billion in the week to 6th March.