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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
SPY closed on Friday within Mon-Wed Hi-Lo range which indicates no bias on the weekly timeframe. Buyers have not been active on this timeframe for six weeks.
ES Analysis: ES found Support early last week at the 11mn poc at 1548. Price below this level would be very weak location.
ETF Support as follows: SPY 155.80; DIA 144.24; QQQ 68.62; IWM 93.62.
ETF Resistance as follows: SPY 162.40; DIA 150.14; QQQ 72.05; IWM 97.87
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: Last week printed its lowest level since Sep 2011.
Oil USO: Ended the week printing at the 34.20 area of S/R. Momentum is positive but has turned down.
Gold GLD: Last week printed its lowest level since Aug 2010.
Silver SLV: Last week printed its lowest level since Aug 2010.
Dollar Index: Held major poc support at 80.15 in June and is now printing above the 12mn poc at 82.73. Momentum is up and positive.
EURUSD: Momentum is down and negative. Printing below the minor Support at 1.3081, 1/2R off April low. Next Support is the maj poc at 1.2777
*********** BREADTH
CP Market Timing System remained negative for Nyse and R2000; turned back to positive (from eutral)for Nasdaq and remained negative for UK.
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 41%, Nasdaq 58%, R2000 55%, UK32%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive. Numbers >80 are considered overbought.
*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
06/28: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was lower at 30.3% (from ). Bears% was higher at 35.2% (from 30%). The nett is therefore lower at -4.9. An increase in retail bearish sentiment.
06/28: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was lower at 41.7% which is the lowest since w/e 30th November. Bears% was higher at 25% which is the highest since w/e 7th December. The nett (Bulls-Bears) is therefore 16.7, which is the lowest since w/e 30th November. This is down from 36.4 five week’s ago which was the highest since May 2011.
06/28: Market Vane (advisers) poll was sharply lower at 58 (from 65). The lowest number since w/e 16th November.
06/28: The NAAIM number (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was sharply lower at 34.21, the lowest number since June 1st 2012..
Mutual Fund Flow:
06/28: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 2.68. Wednesday’s ratio at 2.62 was a multi-month low. From a contrarian perspective this is worth noting. The previous significant market correction ended in mid November with the Ratio as low as 2.57 at that point.
06/28: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund outflows of -$6.8 billion in the week to 26th June. The 4wk Flow number is -5.01 which is the lowest since w/e 23rd Nov last year.
06/28: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund inflows of $1.6 billion in the week to 26th June.
Option Ratios:
06/28: ISEE (equities only) Index_10dyma printed a multi-year low last week.