ChartProfit eBook 16th August
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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
ES Analysis: Early last week I marked Significant Buying twice but this was followed by Aggressive Selling on Wednesday and Friday and for the first time in many weeks Friday closed below Mon-Wed Hi-Lo range indicating Sellers active on the weekly timeframe. The weekly bar was lower and wider indicating this is Effective Selling on this timeframe and therefore Bulls need to be cautious here.
On Friday 9th Aug the 3mn poc migrated higher to 1686. ES currently prints below that level in a weak price location.
1st Level Resistance = ES 1686.00 (3mn poc)
1st Level Support = ES 1627.00 (5mn poc)
Momentum (PriceOsc) is now down for all four Stock Index ETFs and only holds above zero for QQQ. Please see charts in today’s eBook.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: A minor rally w/e 08/09 found Resistance at the 4mn poc. Chart declined to a new low last week.
Oil USO: Currently prints above the maj poc at 37.93. Momentum is up and positive.
Gold GLD: Chart approaches Resistance at 34.17, the 12mn poc. Time spent above this level would put the chart in a much stronger price location.
Dollar Index: Currently in weak price location below the major poc at 82.73. Bulls would want to see price printing time back above that level. Momentum is negative but up.
EURUSD: As long as 1.3065 holds (9mn poc) the chart is in a strong price location however there is near 1/2R Resistance (off June 2010 low) at 1.3416.
*********** BREADTH
Breadth: The CP Market Timing System turned negative from neutral for Nyse, turned neutral from positive for Nasdaq and remained positive for UK.
Stocks>50dyma numbers fell sharply over the week for Nyse 52% (from 70%), Nasdaq 54% (from 66%), R2000 49% (from 65%). UK 70%%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
08/16: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was lower at 34.5% and Bears% was higher at 28.2%. The nett at 6.3 is a seven week low. Three weeks ago the 4week ma of nett reached 24.43 which was the highest since February 2012.
08/16: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was lower at 47.4% and Bears% was higher at 20.6%.
08/16: Market Vane (advisers) poll was lower at 63.
08/16: The NAAIM number (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was lower at 69.85. Three week’s ago it reached 87.5 was an extremely high number.
Mutual Fund Flow:
08/16: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 3.49. Mid-week it reached 4.07, a 40dy high. The ratio reached as high as 5.43 at the market May high and as low as 2.15 on 07/10 (which was the lowest ratio since January 2012).
08/16: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund inflows of $948 million in the week to 14th August. Two weeks ago the 4wk Flow number reached $40.4 billion which was the highest in my database.
08/16: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund inflows of $2.6 billion in the week to 14th August.