ChartProfit eBook 23rd August
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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
ST analysis improved last week. SPY held important Support and breadth improved. LT analysis has not confirmed.
ES Analysis: The 5mn poc migrated to 1644.50. Last week I marked Significant Buying three times and Significant Selling twice. Both Significant Buyers and Sellers were active this week. There was encouragement for Bulls. The Value Areas last week were, more or less, generated above the 1644.50 poc and Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) has now been marked above that level. Price below this proven level would obviously be a negative.
Friday closed above Mon-Wed Hi-Lo range indicating Buyers active on the weekly timeframe. The weekly bar was lower and narrower so this was not Effective Buying on this timeframe.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: A minor rally w/e 08/09 found Resistance at the 4mn poc. Chart printed a two year low last week.
Oil USO: Difficult chart currently giving few clues relative to the 1/2R off 2011 high at 37.31 and 37.93 its maj poc.
Gold GLD: Chart is probing above the Resistance at 134.17, the 12mn poc. If chart should print time above this level it would be in a much stronger price location.
Dollar Index: Currently in weak price location below the major poc at 82.73. Bulls would want to see price recover that level. Momentum is negative but up.
EURUSD: Prints above the Support band between the 4mn poc at 1.3257 and the 1/2R at 1.3228 but yet to overcame Resistance at 1.3418, the 1/2R of 2010 low.
*********** BREADTH
Breadth: The CP Market Timing System remained negative for Nyse, remained neutral for Nasdaq and remained positive for U.K.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 57%, Nasdaq 59%, R2000 56%, UK 69% Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
08/23: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was lower at 29%, a seventeen week low. Bears% had a big jump to 42.9% (from 28.2%), an eighteen week high. The 4week ma of nett is now at 3.98, down considerably from 24.43 reached four weeks ago which was the highest since February 2012.
08/23: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was lower at 43.3% and Bears% was slightly higher at 21.6%.
08/23: Market Vane (advisers) poll was lower at 59%
08/23: The NAAIM number (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) came in at 34.76. This is a big fall from last week’s number at 63 and represents a considerable increase in bearish sentiment amongst active managers.
Mutual Fund Flow:
08/23: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 3.57. The ratio reached as high as 5.43 at the market May high and as low as 2.15 on 07/10 (which was the lowest ratio since January 2012).
08/23: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund outflows of -$9.4 billion in the week to 21st August. This is the largest single week outflow for more than a year. Three weeks ago the 4wk Flow number reached $40.4 billion which was the highest in my database, this has fallen sharply to $4.45 billion.
08/23: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund inflows of $2.0 billion in the week to 21st August.