Chartprofit eBook 30th August 2013
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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
Friday closed within Mon-Wed Hi-Lo range indicating no bias on the weekly timeframe. Previous week indicated Ineffective Buying and week before that saw Effective Selling.
ES analysis: Last week I marked Aggressive Selling twice early in the week and Responsive Buying twice later in the week. Support was found at the 1627 poc and Resistance at the 1644.50 poc. The 5month poc at 1644.50 has again been probed pre-open today and as I write ES prints just below that level. Bulls would hope time would be printed above this Resistance.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: Chart approaches the Resistance at 107.22, the 4mn poc, but has not yet printed above that level.
Oil USO: Now printing above both the 1/2R off 2011 high at 37.31 and 37.93 its maj poc in a stronger price location.
Gold GLD: Chart is now printing above the Resistance at 134.17, the 12mn poc. This is stronger price location.
Dollar Index: Currently in weak price location below the major poc at 82.73. Bulls would want to see price recover that level.
EURUSD: Is today printing in a weaker price location below 1.3228, the 1/2R off Feb high. There is Support at the 1.3063 poc.
*********** BREADTH
Breadth: The CP Market Timing System remained negative for Nyse, remained neutral for Nasdaq and turned negative (from positive) for UK.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 34%, Nasdaq 40%, R2000 33%, UK 53%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
08/30: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was higher at 33.5%. Last week’s 29% was a seventeen week low. Bears% fell sharply to 30.7%. Last week’s 42.9% was an eighteen week high. The nett at 2.8 and the 4wk ma of nett at 2.03 are in the middle of their six month range.
08/30: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was lower for the third week at 38.1% which is a forty week low. Bears% was slightly higher at 23.8%. The nett at 14.3 is the lowest for 39 weeks.
08/30: Market Vane (advisers) poll was lower at 56% which is a 12month low.
08/30: The NAAIM number (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was higher at 46.92 (from 34.76).
Mutual Fund Flow:
08/30: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 3.27. The ratio reached as high as 5.43 at the market May high and as low as 2.15 on 07/10 (which was the lowest ratio since January 2012).
08/30: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund outflows of -$863 Million in the week to 28th August. Previous week’s outflow of -$9.4 billion was the largest single week outflow for more than a year. Four weeks ago the 4wk Flow number reached $40.4 billion which was the highest in my database, this has fallen sharply to a 4wk outflow of -$1.29 billion.
08/30: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund inflows of $2.2 billion in the week to 28th August.
VIX
08/30: VIX high on Friday was the highest since June price low.