Chartprofit eBook 13th September 2013
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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
Friday closed within Mon-Wed Hi-Lo range indicating no bias on the weekly timeframe.
ES analysis: Aggressive Buying was marked on Monday and Wednesday last week and ES was higher and closed strong so this was Effective Buying on the weekly timeframe. Significantly, on Friday the 12mn poc migrated to 1685.50. This is now First Level Support. No Significant Selling has been marked for eight days. Following the improvement in ST analysis noted pre-open last Monday the LT analysis has now also improved. Pre-open today ES (Dec) is sharply higher and has printed above 1700.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: Chart remains in a weak price location below 107.22, the 4mn poc and prints close to the August low.
Oil USO: Now printing above both the 1/2R off 2011 high at 37.31 and 37.93, its maj poc, in a stronger price location.
Gold GLD: Chart is currently printing below 134.17, the 12mn poc, in a weak price location. Friday printed a 25day low. Momentum is now negative and down.
Dollar Index: Currently in weak price location below the major poc at 82.73. Bulls would want to see price recover that level.
EURUSD: Currently printing in a stronger price location above 1.3228, the 1/2R off Feb high.
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*********** BREADTH
Breadth: CP Market Timing System turned neutral (from negative) for Nyse, turned positive (from neutral) for Nasdaq and UK remained positive.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 58%, Nasdaq 57%, R2000 51%, UK 64%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
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*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
09/13: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was higher again at 45.5%. Three week’s ago Bulls% reached 29% which was a seventeen week low at that time. Bears% was lower at 24.6%. Three week’s ago Bears% reached 42.9% which was an eighteen week high. The nett at 20.9 is a seven week high.
09/13: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was unchanged at 37.1% which is the lowest since June 2012. Bears% was slightly lower at 22.7%. The 4wk ma of nett at 15.95 is the lowest since December – see last week’s comments.
09/13: Market Vane (advisers) poll was higher at 62%. Two week’s ago the poll reached 56% which was a 12month low. This week’s 4wk ma at 58.75 is a new twelve month low.
09/13: The NAAIM number (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was higher at 66.75 (from 42.26).
Mutual Fund Flow:
09/13: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio finished the week at 3.96. The ratio reached as high as 5.43 at the market May high and as low as 2.15 on 07/10 (which was the lowest ratio since January 2012).
09/13: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund inflows of $12.8 Billion in the week to 11th September. The 4wk Flow number is -$84 million but last week’s 4wk outflow of -$12.69 Billion was the lowest for more than a year.
09/13: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund inflows of $3.7 Billion in the week to 11th September.
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