Chartprofit eBook 15th November 2013
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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
SPY closed the week above Mon-Wed Hi-Lo Range which indicates Buyers Active on this timeframe.
Stock Index ETFs: Momentum (PriceOsc) turned back up for SPY, DIA and IWM and would ddo so today for QQQ with a strong close.
ES Analysis: Last week I marked Significant Buying three times and no Significant Selling with all five Value Areas being printed above the 1758.50 poc. The weekly bar was higher so this is Effective Buying on the longer timeframe.
*********** BREADTH
Breadth: CP Market timing System turned positive (from negative) for Nyse and Nasdaq, turned neutral (from negative) for R2000 and remained negative for UK.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 70%, Nasdaq 61%, R2000 63%, UK 67%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
11/15: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was lower at at 39.2%. Three weeks ago Bulls% reached 49.2% which was the highest since January. Bears% was higher at 27.5%. The nett (Bulls-Bears) was on a five week low at 11.7 The 4wk ma was slightly lower but last week’s 25.05 was the highest since early 2012.
11/15: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was lower at 52.6%, down from 55.2% which was the highest since April 2011. Bears% (almost unchanged) at 15.6% is the lowest Bears% for years. The nett (Bulls minus Bears) at 37.1 is down slightly from previous week’s 39.6 which was the highest single reading since April 2011 but the 4wk ma has now exceeded the peak it reached in May and is at its highest level since May 2011.
11/15: Market Vane (advisers) poll was unchanged at 65
11/15: The NAAIM number (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was lower at 80.67. Two week’s ago it reached 94.59 which was the highest reading since February’s104.25 (which was the highest in the database).
Mutual Fund Flow:
11/15: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 4.28. The ratio reached as high as 5.43 at the market May high and as low as 2.15 on 07/10 (which was the lowest ratio since January 2012).
11/15: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund inflows of $1.7 Billion in the week to 13th November. Even so the 4wk Flow number was lower at $27.90 Billion. Last week the 4wk Flow reached $38.90 and there is only one higher number in my database and that was when it reached $40.40 Billion in early August.
11/15: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund inflows of $1.7 Billion in the week to 13th November.
VIX
11/15: VIX closed at 12.19 on Friday. The lowest Close since early August.