Chartprofit eBook 6th December 2013
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I don’t often mark trendlines on the charts but with the majority of Sentiment indicators registering extreme optimism (see below) ) I have marked Support trendlines on the four stock index ETFs. I would consider it important if all four of these break down.
*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
ES Analysis: Last week I marked Significant Selling once (Ineffective) and Significant Buying once (Effective). Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) was marked on Friday following a gap-higher to Open and ES finished the week almost where it started. The 30day poc migrated to 1792 and as long as ES holds above this level it is in a strong price location.
*********** BREADTH
Breadth: The CP Market Timing system turned negative (from neutral) for Nyse, stayed positive for Nasdaq and R2000 and stayed negative for UK.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 63%, Nasdaq 63%, R2000 65%, UK 49%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT
I don’t often mark trendlines on the charts but with the majority of Sentiment indicators registering extreme optimism I have marked Support trendlines on the four stock index ETFs. I would consider it impoartant if all four of these break down.
Consensus Polls:
12/06: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was lower at 42.6% having reached 49.2% five weeks ago which was the highest since January. Bears% was also lower at 27.5%. Four weeks ago the 4wk ma of net (Bulls-Bears) reached 25.05 which was the highest since early 2012.
12/06: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was higher at 57.1% which is the highest since April 2011. Bears% was lower at 14.3% which is the lowest Bears% for years. The nett (Bulls minus Bears) at 42.8 is the highest single reading in my database and the 4wkma of nett at 39.82 is an extreme reading, the highest for many years.
12/06: Market Vane (advisers) poll was lower at 65. Previous week’s 67 was the highest reading since late May.
12/06: The NAAIM number (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was lower at 94.75 – still an extremely high number. Last week the number reached101.45 and there is only one reading higher than this in the database which was February’s 104.25.
Mutual Fund Flow:
12/06: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 504. Thursday’s ratio at 5.67 is the highest in my database. This indicator is registering extreme optimism which has historically been a warning for the market.
12/06: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund inflows of $1.5 Billion in the week to 6th December. The 4wk Flow number was slightly higher at $19.40 Billion having reached $38.90 four weeks ago which was the second highest number in my database.
12/06: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund inflows of $891 Million in the week to 4th December.