Chartprofit eBook 21st February 2014
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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
Friday closed within Mon-Wed Hi-Lo Range indicating no bias on this timeframe. This followed two weeks of Buyers Active.
ES analysis: Last week Aggressive (but Ineffective) Selling was marked on Wednesday with Buyers Responding immediately on Thursday to a test of that red-at-bottom low. Buyers are still in control of the dayframe and in the last three weeks I have marked Significant Buying eleven times and Significant Selling once. The first sign of LT weakness would be time below 1792.00. Time above 1835.50 would indicate higher – monitor price relative to this level for clue re ST direction at the start of this week..
*********** BREADTH
Breadth: CP Market Timing System stayed positive for NYSE, turned positive (from neutral) for Nasdaq and UK and remained neutral for R2000.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 58%, Nasdaq 56%, R2000 53%, UK 74%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
02/21: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was higher at 42.2% (from 40.2%). Bears% was lower at 22.8% (from 27.3%). The 4wk ma of net (Bulls-Bears) was slightly higher at 5.8, with previous week’s 4.5 being the lowest since September.
02/21: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was higher at 46.5%. Seven week’s ago Bulls% reached 61.6% which was the highest since October 2007. Bears% was slightly lower at 17.2%. Eight week’s ago Bears% hit 14.1% which was the lowest Bears% in my database. The 4wkma of nett at 30 is off the high of 45.3 it reached six weeks ago – the highest in my database
02/21: Market Vane (advisers) poll was higher at 65
02/21: The NAAIM Exposure Index (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was slightly higher at 75.95.
Mutual Fund Flow:
02/21: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 6.87. The recent high was 7.5 on 16th Jan which was the highest ratio in my database.
02/21: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund inflows of $11.2 Billion in the week to 19th Feb
$20.9 Billion – the largest single weekly outflow in my database
02/21: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund inflows of $2.9 Billion in the week to 19th Feb