Please review yesterday’s note, highlighted on chart. ES opened RTH on Wednesday above the 6702.5 Control and immediately rallied to a new high. Significant Buying (green) was marked so first ST indication of weakness would now be a RTH close below 6705.25, yesterday’s Buying Day Low (dashed line on chart). Potential stall level today just […]

I wrote yesterday that ‘If ES struggles to print time above 6710 we could see further weakness but time above 6710 would indicate new highs‘. Tuesday’s Value Area was printed below 6710. Development: the important Control has now moved to 6702.5. A Control migrating like this will often preceed a directional move in price so […]

Important level to watch today is 6710. If ES struggles to print time above that level we could see further weakness but time above 6710 would indicate new highs.

ES tested the daily 20ema (as expected) and recovered, see Thursday’s note, highlighted on chart. I wrote Friday ‘Buyers need to recover 6671 or further weakness would be indicated‘- that’s what happened so for now, last week’s price action looks like another bought dip. Significant Sellers (red) marked below 6671 would quickly change that view.

Thursday: The ST Control at 6671 capped the upside of the session and subsequently ES declined to test the daily 20ema, see yesterday’s note, highlighted on chart. Today: Early in today’s session ES recovered the 6671 Control but gave it back; 2 hours in it is printing back below the Control in a weak position. […]

I wrote Tuesday that the ‘first mechanical indication of weakness would now be a RTH close below 6705.75, Monday’s Buying Day Low’ (dashed line). That happened yesterday. My usual expectation would now be a test of the 20ema (daily) which is at 6635 today. That is below the ST Control at 6671, and would put […]

I wrote Tuesday that the ‘first mechanical indication of weakness would now be a RTH close below 6705.75, Monday’s Buying Day Low‘ (dashed line on chart). That hasn’t happened yet.Today: In the ST there is v min. Support at 6718.5. Further upside could be triggered if time is printed above 6730 (minor VAH).

ES reached the ST target at 6743.5 on Monday. The targets will often be rejected once hit. This hasn’t, and Significant Buying (green) was marked again so the first mechanical indication of weakness would now be a RTH close below 6705.75, Monday’s Buying Day Low (dashed line).

Note that I have adjusted the chart for Dec 25 contract. On this chart the ST Control migrated higher to 6671 late last week.The Major Control is at 6481.5 but there is also Major Support on Dec at 6524.5.If ES holds 6671 then ST target is 6743.5 Read this post on Substack On Friday I […]

Last four Value Areas have been printed entirely above the ST Control at 6592 which is a positive. Bulls would want to see that continue. If it does I’m targeting 6700-6715 but with volatility expected (big options expiry day today) another test of 6592, or lower, would not be a surprise today.