ES is printing above 5830 which, I wrote on Friday, would lessen the chances of a reversal here. I wrote on 10/10, ‘Trend/technicals obviously still indicate higher‘.

I wrote yesterday – ‘Trend/technicals obviously still indicate higher but a clear rejection of price above 5830 here would be interesting‘. The longer ES prints close to or above 5830 the lesser the chances of a reversal here. I’m looking for a “clear rejection” and that would have ES breaking first Support at 5771.50 within […]

I wrote 24th September ‘Price above 5830 though and the trend might start to get exhausted‘. That is being put to the test now with ES printing above 5840 in the minutes before RTH and then declining quickly. Trend/technicals obviously still indicate higher but a clear rejection of price above 5830 here would be interesting. […]

The high on 09/26 (5 minutes before RTH) was 5830, see note 09/24. On 09/25 the 1month Control moved to 5771.50. ES is currently printing below that level (now Resistance) and aligning more with the negative scenario outlined in yesterday’s note rather than the positive one. Unless ES can print time back above 5771.50 it […]

ES rallied back above 5771.50 at the end of last week, see Friday’s note on chart. Overnight that level (now Support) has been tested. Negative scenario at the start of this week would be a break back below that Support indicating further weakness, time at 5752, and then a break lower. The positive indication would […]

Pre-open today ES is printing back above 5771.50 and as long as that level holds it is in a stronger position (see yesterday’s note). A break back below would indicate further weakness.

On Tuesday ES broke below 5771.50 First Support and on Wednesday this level became Resistance, see chart. Not great price action. As I wrote on 09/26 ‘Time below that level would be first sign of weakness.’ Bulls would want to see 5771.50 recovered quickly. Next Support (6mn) is at 5635.

Technical oscillators on the Weekly Charts, e.g. the popular Relative Strength Index (RSI), have been negatively diverging with price action over the past few weeks, see weekly SPY chart below. Personally, I think these ‘indicators‘ are of secondary importance compared to the distribution analysis that I post every day, but maybe a rejected upside break-out […]

On Monday ES dipped briefly below First Support at 5771.50 but recovered quickly. For 8 days ES has been trading in a tight range, and generating narrow individual Value Areas, day to day. This often precedes a strong directional move that sometimes follows a false break out of the range in the opposite direction.

First Support moved to 5771.50 on 09/25, see note 09/26. That has held so far. From note 09/24 ‘Price above 5830 though and the trend might start to get exhausted‘. Effective Selling was last marked 09/03 – nothing since then.