ES had a problem with the minor Resistance at 4169.0 on Wed and Thu. Sold off from there yesterday, breaking the minor Support 4128.50. The reduce risk point remains at 4048.50 – triggered by a RTH close below that level. More important (4 mn) Support at 3989.

I wrote in yday’s note “There is minor Resistance today at 4169.0, time above that level would indicate higher”. That level was Resistance in Wed RTH and again overnight. Note that the minor Support has moved higher to 4128.50 (from 3989). Also note that 4169/70 might attract time which would lift the target to 4267. […]

The reduce risk point at 4048.50 hasn’t been threatened – a RTH close below that level (02/01 Buying Day Low) would be first sign of weakness, mechanically. ST: There is minor Resistance today at 4169.0, time above that level would indicate higher.

Daily time-frame: as long as ES holds Support at 3989 it’s in a strong position. ST: Last week price was rejected from the 4210 target (just below) with a chance of rejection here back to test 4063 see note 02/03. Time below that level and I would target 3965. Mechanically, the reduce risk point is […]

Daily time-frame: price action has been positive recently and as long as ES holds Support at 3989 its in a strong position. ST: Thursday RTH didn’t quite make 4210 target, dotted line, but close enough. There is chance of rejection here back to test 4063. The reduce risk point is a RTH Close below 4048.50 […]

The reduce risk point is now a RTH Close below 4048.50 (02/01 Buying Day Low) with LT Support at 3989. I’m targeting 4210 as per Monday’s note.

ES is once again printing time above 4074, 3month VAH, which is a positive and suggests development to 4210. Possibly a volatile day today and repeating what I wrote in Monday’s note – Mechanically, a RTH Close below 4027.25 (Thursday’s Buying Day Low) would indicate ST weakness and cutting back risk.

On Friday ES probed above the 4074, 3month VAH, which I wrote could stall the rally. Monday’s Value Area was lower but there’s been plenty of positives recently. Repeating what I wrote in yesterday’s note Mechanically, a RTH Close below 4027.25 (Thursday’s Buying Day Low) would indicate ST weakness and cutting back risk.

ES retracing today pre-RTH but last week’s price action was strong and Friday’s Value Area was above 4074, see Friday’s note. Mechanically, a RTH Close below 4027.25 (Thursday’s Buying Day Low) would indicate ST weakness and cutting back risk – otherwise I’m targeting 4210. LT Support at 3989.

Price action so far this week has been positive. ES has now reached the minor VAH at 4074 which could stall the rally but time at this level or higher would be a further positive indication and suggest a new distribution higher has begun on the daily time-frame.