Chartprofit eBook 10th May
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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
Friday closed above Mon-Wed Hi-Lo range which indicates Active, Effective Buying on the weekly timeframe. I have not marked active Sellers on this timeframe this year.
ES Analysis: Last week I marked Significant Buying twice and no Significant Selling. So far at least, the higher price range has not attracted a Significant Response from the Sellers.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: KEY CHART. Has turned down from 123.42, the 1/2R off last July’s high. Momentum turned negative. There is Support at 117.15, the major poc.
Oil USO: printing very close to the important Resistance around 34.20. Time printed above this level would put the chart back into a strong price location. Momentum has turned positive.
Gold GLD: Fell steeply last month to its lowest level for two years. Momentum has turned positive.
Silver SLV: Has been weak since it double-failed at its maj poc in January and last month printed its lowest level since October 2010. Momentum has turned positive.
Dollar Index: KEY CHART. Back in a strong price location above 82.75, the 2month poc.
EURUSD: Met Resistance last week at 1.3228 (1/2R off February high) and is now printing back below 1.3070, the 24mn poc.
*********** BREADTH
Chartprofit Market Timing System remained positive for all major Market Charts.
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 77% Nasdaq 65% R2K 68%. UK 75%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
05/10: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was higher at 40.8% (from 31%) and Bears% down to a sixteen week low at 27.4% (from 35.9%).
The nett (Bulls-Bears) is therefore back in positive territory for the first time in five weeks at 13.4. The 4wk ma of nett, at -5.85 has rebounded sharply from last week’s reading which was the lowest since mid 2009.
05/10: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was higher at 52.1% which is a twelve week high. Bears% was also higher (slightly) at 19.8%. The 4wk ma of Nett is still below the peak it reached in February (if the market pushes higher still, we should watch that level).
05/10: Market Vane (advisers) poll was higher at 69. This is the highest since 2007.
05/10: The NAAIM number (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was slightly lower at at 79.11.
Mutual Fund Flow:
05/10: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio finished the week at 4.62. Ratio reached a low of 3.22 on 4th Jan and a high of 5.22 on 13th Feb.
05/10: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund inflows of $7.7 Billion in the week to 8th May.
05/10: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund inflows of $1.8 Billion in the week to 8th May