Chartprofit eBook 11th October 2013
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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
In the longer timeframe, Friday closed above Mon-Wed Hi-Lo Range indicating Buyers Active on the weekly timeframe but the week produced an outside bar so their activity can be said to be ineffective so far.
ES analysis: Last week I marked Significant Buying three times and Significant Selling once. Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) was marked again on Friday with Friday’s Value Area being printed entirely above the 1685.50 poc. This is encouraging in the ST but Bulls would now want to see time printed above that level.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: The local poc migrated lower to 106.34 last week and is now Resistance for this chart which is currently printing below that level. Momentum (although postive) is down.
Oil USO: Closed Friday below 37.31, the low of the Support/Resistance band in a weak price location. I’m not interested in considering the long side of this chart until price can print time above 37.93, the maj poc.
Gold GLD: Printed a 3month low last week and remains below 134.17, the 12mn poc, in a weak price location.
Dollar Index: Is printing back above the important level at 80.15 (major 1/2R and poc). Dollar Bulls would want to see price holding above this level. Momentum (although negative) is up.
EURUSD: On 3rd Oct printed its highest level since February and has not shown much weakness from there. Momentum (although postive) is down.
*********** BREADTH
Breadth: The CP Market Timing System remained negative for Nyse, remained positive for Nasdaq, remained neutral for R2000, remained negative for UK.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 72%, Nasdaq 68%, R2000 70%, UK 59%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
10/11: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was higher at 41.3%. Bears% was also higher at 33.6%. The nett (Bulls minus Bears) was unchanged at 7.7.
10/11: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was slightly lower at 45.4%. Bears% was higher at 20.6.
10/11: Market Vane (advisers) poll was lower at 57% (from 61%).
10/11: The NAAIM number (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was sharply lower at 54.26 (from 73.13). Two week’s ago the number reached 80.47 which was an eighteen week high.
Mutual Fund Flow:
10/11: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 4.0. The ratio reached as high as 5.43 at the market May high and as low as 2.15 on 07/10 (which was the lowest ratio since January 2012).
10/11: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund outflows of -$6.1 Billion in the week to 9th October. The 4wk Flow number has now fallen from an extremely high $31.30 Billion previous week to $12.40 Billion this week.
10/11: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund outflows of -$142 Million in the week to 9th October.
VIX
10/11: VIX reached 21.34 intraday on Wednesday. The highest level since 24th June.