Chartprofit eBook 12th July
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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
Friday closed above Mon-Wed Hi-Lo Range which indicates Buyers Active on this timeframe for the second week.
The four stock index ETFs are in a much stronger price location with Price Osc back above zero now indicating trend up. See charts for relevant poc levels that must hold to maintain strong price location.
ES Analysis: Last week I marked Significant Buying once. No Significant Selling has been marked for fifteen days. Most importantly, the 4mn poc migrated higher last week to 1645. This is now important Support and as long as ES holds this level it is in a yet stronger price location.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: w/e 07/05 chart printed its lowest level since Sep 2011. Bounced very little since then. Price Osc has been below zero since early May which is trend down.
Oil USO: has advanced high enough to probe above the 1/2R off 2011 high at 37.31. Momentum is positive and up.
Gold GLD: has rallied a little from the low on 06/28 which was its lowest level since Aug 2010. Momentum (although negative) is up.
Silver SLV: w/e 06/28 chart printed its lowest level since Aug 2010. Momentum (although negative) is up.
Dollar Index: Last week printed its highest level since July 2010 but declined sharply from there to test Support at the 12mn poc at 82.73. Printing above that level today.
EURUSD: Rallied sharply since testing the maj poc Support at 1.2777 early last week. The 9mn poc at 1.3075 has been probed but chart is printing below that level today.
*********** BREADTH
Chartprofit Market Timing System: Nyse turned positive (from negative), Nasdaq stayed postive, R2000 stayed postive and UK turned neutral (from negative).
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 70%, Nasdaq 77%, R2000 80%, UK 61%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive. Numbers >80 are considered overbought.
*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
07/12: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was higher again this week at 48.9% (from 42%). Bears% was lower again at 18.3% (from 23.8%). The nett is therefore 30.6, up a lot over two weeks to its highest level since Feb 2012. Need to watch the climbing 4week ma of nett.
07/12: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was higher at 46.9%. Bears% was also higher at 22.9%. The nett (Bulls-Bears) is therefore 24, up slightly from last week. Two weeks ago the nett reached 16.7 which was the lowest since w/e 30th November.
07/12: Market Vane (advisers) poll was higher at 63. Two weeks ago the number reached 58 which was the lowest number since w/e 16th November.
07/12: The NAAIM number (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was higher at 47.089. Two week’s ago the number reached 34.21 which was the lowest since June 1st 2012.
Mutual Fund Flow:
07/12: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 2.95. Wednesday’s 2.15 was the lowest ratio since January 2012 and indicated real fear from the retail trader – this is a contrarian indicator.
07/12: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund inflows of $11.8 billion in the week to 10th July. The largest single week inflow since early February. The 4wk Flow number is $14.40 Billion.
07/12: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund inflows of $3.4 billion in the week to 10th July.