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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
SPY closed on Friday below the low of Mon-Wed Hi-Lo Range indicating Sellers Active on this timeframe.
Stock Index ETFs: Momentum for all four charts is now down. Key chart/level to monitor is IWM which found Support just above 109.16, its 3mn poc. Look for further weakness if time is spent below that level.
ES Analysis: Last week I marked Significant Selling once and no Significant Buying. We have been watching First Level Support at ES 1758.50. Interestingly, the March contract (which we are now following) briefly probed that level overnight and recovered indicating this is valid Support. Time printed below this level would indicate further weakness and see comment re IWM chart above.
*********** BREADTH
Breadth: The CP Market Timing system remained negative for Nyse, turned negative for Nasdaq and R2000 and remained negative for UK.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 46%, Nasdaq51%, R2000 51%, UK 49%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT
The majority of Sentiment indicators have registered extreme optimism recently. This usually a warning for the market.
Consensus Polls:
12/13: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was lower at 41.3% having reached 49.2% six weeks ago which was the highest since January. Bears% was also lower at 25.0%. Five weeks ago the 4wk ma of net (Bulls-Bears) reached 25.05 which was the highest since early 2012.
12/13: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was higher at 58.2% which is the highest since December 2010. Bears% was unchanged at 14.3% which is the lowest Bears% for years. The nett (Bulls minus Bears) at 43.9 is the highest single reading in my database and the 4wkma of nett at 41.52 is an extreme reading, the highest for many years.
12/13: Market Vane (advisers) poll was higher at 66. Two week’s ago the poll reached 67 which was the highest reading since late May.
12/13: The NAAIM number (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was higher at 100.69 which is an extremely high number. The highest reading in the database being February’s 104.25.
Mutual Fund Flow:
12/13: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 5.5. Previous week the ratio reached 5.67 which is the highest in my database. This indicator is registering extreme optimism which has historically been a warning for the market.
12/13: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund outflows of -$1.8 Billion in the week to 11th December. The 4wk Flow number reached $38.90 five weeks ago which was the second highest number in my database.
12/13: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund outflows of -$1.8 Billion in the week to 11th December.