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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
SPY closed on Friday within Mon-Wed Hi-Lo range which does not indicate a bias on the weekly timeframe. Previous week also had no bias but two weeks ago Sellers were marked as active on this timeframe for the first time this year.
ES Analysis: from pre-open today. Over the last seven days both Significant Buying and Selling has been marked (see chart) with recent price action oscillating around the 60day poc at 1628. First Level Resistance remains the 1/2R off May high at 1641. Until ES prints some time above that Resistance (preferably with Significant Buying being marked) I am not considering new long trades.
Dayframe: imo the best gauge of ST strength/weakness would be to watch price relative to the minor 1/2R off May high. Time spent above the following levels would be ST strong price location: ES 1641SPY 164.66; IWM 98.05; QQQ 73.21; DIA 151.72
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: In a weak price location below 117.15, the major poc. Last week chart printed its lowest level since April 2012.
Oil USO: Chart now prints above the 34.20 Resistance area. Momentum is up and positive.
Gold GLD: Fell steeply in April to its lowest level for two years and that level was approached again in May.
Silver SLV: Last week chart printed its lowest level since Oct 2010.
Dollar Index: Broke the Support at the 1/2R off 2009 high at 81.10. Next Support is the major poc at 80.15. Momentum is negative and down.
EURUSD: Last week printed its highest level since February and above 1.3228, the 1/2R off Feb high. Momentum is up and positive.
*********** BREADTH
CP Market Timing System turned neutral (from positive) for Nyse and R2000; remained positive for Nasdaq and turned negative for UK.
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 52%, Nasdaq 61%, R2000 61%, UK 35%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive. Numbers >80 are considered overbought.
*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
06/14: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was higher at 33% from previous week’s 29.5%. Bears% was lower at 34.6%, from 38.9%. The nett is therefore higher at -1.6. So an increase in retail bullish sentiment this week.
06/14: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was lower at 43.8% (from 45.8%). Bears% was higher at 22.9% (from 20.8%). The nett (Bulls-Bears) is therefore 20.9 which is the lowest since w/e 7th December and has fallen sharply from the nett three week’s ago at 36.4 which was the highest since May 2011.
06/14: Market Vane (advisers) poll was lower at 63 which is a five month low. The number reached 70 four weeks ago which was the highest since 2007.
06/14: The NAAIM number (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was higher at 61.90 (from 51.58).
Mutual Fund Flow:
06/14: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 4.22. Thursday’s ratio at 4.00 was a 32 day low and showed (at last) some bears emerging. Watching the ratio relative to its recent high which was 5.43 on 22nd May (May’s high day) and its recent low which was 3.27 on 25th April.
06/14: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund outflows of -$608 million in the week to 12th June. The 4wk sum is at $2.9 Billion which is down quite a way from the 4wk sum three weeks ago at $29.6 Billion which was an extremely high number.
06/14: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund inflows of $1.4 billion in the week to 12th June.