Chartprofit eBook 17th January 2014
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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
SPY closed on Friday within the Mon-Fri Hi-Lo range which does not indicate a bias on this timeframe.
Stock Index ETFs: Momentum is positive but down for all four major ETFs
ES Analysis: Currently ES is finding value at 1835.50 (35dy poc) and time printed above this level (and despite current Sentiment readings) would suggest development to 1865. Only Significant Selling marked below 1803.50 (4mn poc) would be a concern in the LT.
*********** BREADTH
Breadth: The CP Market Timing system turned neutral (from positive) for Nyse, remained positive for Nasdaq and remained neutral for R2000. UK remained positive.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 63%, Nasdaq 72%, R2000 66%, UK 77% Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT The majority of Sentiment indicators have registered extreme optimism recently. This usually a warning for the market.
Consensus Polls:
01/17: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was lower at 39%, down from 43.6%. Three weeks ago Bulls% reached 55.1% which was the highest Bulls% since January. Bears% was also lower at 21.5%, down from 25%. The 4wk ma of net (Bulls-Bears) is at 21.63. It reached 25.05 nine weeks ago which was the highest since early 2012.
01/17: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was lower at 56.1%. Two week’s ago Bulls% reached 61.6% which was the highest since October 2007 Bears% was almost unchanged at 15.3%. Three week’s ago Bears% hit 14.1% which was the lowest Bears% in my database. The 4wkma of nett at is down slightly from previous week’s 45.3 which is the highest in my database
01/17: Market Vane (advisers) poll was higher at 66. Two weeks ago the number reached 67 which was the highest reading since late May.
01/17: The NAAIM number (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was higher at 96.83. There are only four readings in the database higher than this, the highest being 104.25 last February.
Mutual Fund Flow:
01/17: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 6.37. Thursday’s ratio at 7.5 is the highest ratio in my database. This is registering extreme optimism which has historically been a warning for the market.
01/17: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund inflows of $3.6 Billion in the week to 15th January.
01/17: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund inflows of $5.1 Billion in the week to 15th January.
VIX: closed at 12.14 on 01/10 which is the lowest Close since 11/15