Chartprofit eBook 18th October
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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
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In the longer timeframe, Friday closed above Mon-Wed Hi-Lo Range indicating Buyers Active on the weekly timeframe for the second consecutive week.
ES analysis: Since the low on 9th October I have marked Significant Buying eight times. Buyers have been very active and so far there has been no markable Selling Response. Because the market has pushed sharply higher there has not been enough time printed at any level for a poc of any significance to emerge and therefore First Level Support remains at 1685.50.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: Recently the local poc migrated lower to 106.34. Time printed above this level would put the chart in a stronger price location.
Gold GLD: Remains below 134.17, the 12mn poc, in a weak price location.
Oil USO: Consolidating below 37.31, the low of the Support/Resistance band in a weak price location. I’m not interested in considering the long side of this chart until price can print time above 37.93, the maj poc.
Dollar Index: Is printing in a weak price location below 80.15. Dollar Bulls would want to see price recover this level.
EURUSD: Reached its highest level since February last week. In mid September it broke above proven 1/2R Resistance and has consolidated above that level.
*********** BREADTH
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Breadth: The CP Market Timing System turned positive (from negative) for Nyse, remained positive for Nasdaq, turned positive (from neutral) for R2000, turned neutral (from negative) for UK.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 83%, Nasdaq 75%, R2000 80%, UK 76%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
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*********** SENTIMENT
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Consensus Polls:
10/18: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was higher again at 46.3%, a thirteen week high. Bears% was lower at 24.9%. The nett (Bulls minus Bears) at 21.4 is a twelve week high.
10/18: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was lower at 42.3%. Bears% was slightly higher at 21.6.
10/18: Market Vane (advisers) poll was higher at 60
10/18: The NAAIM number (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) saw a dramatic jump from 54.26 to 82.05 this week, a twelve week high.
Mutual Fund Flow:
10/18: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 4.03. The ratio reached as high as 5.43 at the market May high and as low as 2.15 on 07/10 (which was the lowest ratio since January 2012).
10/18: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund inflows of $12.7 Billion in the week to 16th October. The 4wk Flow number is at $7 Billion with an extreme peak for this number reaching $40.40 Billion in early August
10/18: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund inflows of $12.7 Billion but the 4wk Flow number is the lowest since the start of the year. This is a contrarian indicator.