Chartprofit eBook 19th July
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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
Friday closed above the high of Mon-Wed Hi-Lo range so Buyers were active on this timeframe for the third week running.
ES Analysis: Last week I marked Responsive Selling on Tuesday which was negated by subsequent price action and Aggressive Buying on Friday. In the longer timeframe as long as ES holds above the 4month poc at 1645 it remains in a strong price location. Friday’s session low came in just above the minor Support at 1677.00 (23day poc) and the first sign of weakness in the ST would be ES printing time below that level.
1st Level LT Support = ES 1645.00 (4mn poc)
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: w/e 07/05 chart printed its lowest level since Sep 2011. Bounced very little since then. Momentum, although negative, is up.
Oil USO: On Friday printed its highest level since May 2012. Until very recently the maj poc was at 38.0. Chart broke above that price late last week and is now printing above that level and the 1/2R off 2011 high at 37.31. This is a strong price location. Momentum is positive and up.
Gold GLD: The low on 06/28 was the lowest since Aug 2010. Momentum has turned positive and pre-open today chart printed a 22day high.
Silver SLV: w/e 06/28 chart printed its lowest level since Aug 2010. Momentum has turned positive and pre-open today chart printed a 22day high.
Dollar Index: On 07/09 printed its highest level since July 2010 but declined sharply from there and pre-open today is printing below 82.73, the 12mn poc. Momentum is still down and could possibly turn negative today. Dollar Bulls would want to see Momentum turn back and price above 82.73.
EURUSD: Rallied sharply since testing the maj poc Support at 1.2777 early last week. The 9mn poc at 1.3075 has been probed but chart is printing below that level today.
*********** BREADTH
Breadth: CP Market Timing System remained positive for NYSE, Nasdaq, R2000 Market Charts.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 78%, Nasdaq 79%, R2000 84%, UK 78%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive. Numbers >80 are considered overbought.
*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
07/19: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was slightly lower at 47.7%. Bears% was slightly higher at 21.3%. The nett is therefore down at 26.4 but previous week reached its highest level since Feb 2012. Need to watch the climbing 4week ma of nett.
07/19: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was higher at 52.1%, an eight week high. Bears% was lower at 19.8%, an eight week low. The nett (Bulls-Bears) is therefore higher at 32.3.Three weeks ago the nett reached 16.7 which was the lowest since w/e 30th November.
07/19: Market Vane (advisers) poll was higher at 66. Three weeks ago the number reached 58 which was the lowest number since w/e 16th November.
07/19: The NAAIM number (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was higher again at 61.73. Three week’s ago the number reached 34.21 which was the lowest since June 1st 2012.
Mutual Fund Flow:
07/19: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 3.0. During the previous week the ratio reached 2.15 which was the lowest ratio since January 2012 and indicated real fear from the retail trader.
07/19: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund inflows of $16.6 billion in the week to 17th July. The largest single week inflow since early January. This has lifted the 4wk Flow number is $26.30 which is a very high number. I’m watching the previous peak for this indicator at $29.6 billion which coincided with the price peak in May.
07/19: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund inflows of $3.7 billion in the week to 17th July.