Chartprofit eBook 20th December 2013
Latest ChartProfit eBook is available to view:
https://chartprofit.com/ebook/131220_Charts.zip
The DNL Reader is required to view the eBook.
If you do not have this program please download it here:
www.digitalwebbooks.com/reader/
pdf version:
https://chartprofit.com/ebook/ChartProfit_131220.pdf
*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
SPY closed on Friday within Mon-Wed Hi-Lo Range indicating no bias on this timeframe.
ES Analysis:Last week I marked Significant Buying once and no Significant Selling. Mid week ES probed down towards the 1758.50 poc. Support was found just above this level and ES rallied strongly for the rest of the week, closing at a new high. As long as ES holds above the 1792 poc it is in a strong price location.
.
*********** BREADTH
Breadth: The CP Market Timing system turned neutral (from negative) for Nyse, turned positive (from negative) for Nasdaq and R2000 and remained negative for UK.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 61%, Nasdaq 66%, R2000 68%, UK 58%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT The majority of Sentiment indicators have registered extreme optimism recently. This usually a warning for the market.
Consensus Polls:
12/20: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was higher at 47.5% having reached 49.2% seven weeks ago which was the highest since January. Bears% was almost unchanged at 25.1%. Six weeks ago the 4wk ma of net (Bulls-Bears) reached 25.05 which was the highest since early 2012.
12/20: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was unchanged at 58.2% which is the highest since December 2010. Bears% was also unchanged at 14.3% which is the lowest Bears% for years. The nett (Bulls minus Bears) at 43.9 is the highest single reading in my database and the 4wkma of nett at 42.97 is an extreme reading, the highest for many years.
12/20: Market Vane (advisers) poll was lower at 63. Three week’s ago the poll reached 67 which was the highest reading since late May.
12/20: The NAAIM number (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was lower at 94.35, but still is a very high number. The highest reading in the database being February’s 104.25.
Mutual Fund Flow:
12/20: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 5.55. Thursday’s ratio at 5.91 is the highest in my database. This indicator is registering extreme optimism which has historically been a warning for the market.
12/20: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund outflows of -$13.3 Billion in the week to 18th December which is the largest single weekly outflow since August 2011. The 4wk Flow number reached $38.90 six weeks ago which was the second highest number in my database.
12/20: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund outflows of -$8.5 Billion in the week to 18th December.