Chartprofit eBook 22nd November 2013
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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
Friday closed above Mon-Wed Hi-Lo range which indicates active Buying on the weekly timeframe.
ES Analysis: Last week I marked Significant Selling three times early in the week and Significant Buying twice later in the week. Buyers remain in control of the dayframe, see Friday’s highlighted comments. The minor (13day) poc is now at 1789 and may be Support in the ST but currently only Significant Selling marked below 1758.50 would have negative implications for the longer timeframe.
*********** BREADTH
Breadth: The CP Market Timing system turned neutral (from positive) for Nyse, remained positive for Nasdaq, turned positive (from neutral) for R2000, and remained negative for UK.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 66%, Nasdaq 62%, R2000 66%, UK 57%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
11/22: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was lower at 34.4% (from 39.2%). Four weeks ago Bulls% reached 49.2% which was the highest since January. Bears% was higher at 29.5% (from 27.5%). The nett (Bulls-Bears) at 4.9 is an eleven week low. The 4wk ma is at 15.95 having reached 25.05 two week’s ago which was the highest since early 2012.
11/22: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was slightly higher at 53.6%. Bulls% reached 55.2% two weeks ago which was the highest since April 2011. Bears% was unchanged at 15.6% is the lowest Bears% for years. The nett (Bulls minus Bears) is at 38.1 having reached 39.6 two weeks ago which was the highest single reading since April 2011. The 4wk ma of nett was higher and is in fact approaching the extreme peak it reached in April 2011.
11/22: Market Vane (advisers) poll was slightly higher at 66
11/22: The NAAIM number (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was higher at 87.43. Three week’s ago it reached 94.59 which was the highest reading since February’s104.25 (which was the highest in the database).
Mutual Fund Flow:
11/22: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 4.94. Thursday’s ratio at 5.2 was the highest since it reached 5.43 at the market May high.
11/22: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund inflows of $4.2 Billion in the week to 20th November. Even so the 4wk Flow number was lower at $15.70 Billion having reached $38.90 two weeks ago which was the second highest number in my database.
11/22: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund inflows of $2.6 Billion in the week to 20th November.
VIX
11/22: VIX closed at 12.26 on Friday. Getting Close to the low it reached in early August.