Chartprofit eBook 26th July
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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
Friday closed within Mon-Wed Hi-Lo range indicating no bias but Buyers were marked as active on this timeframe over the previous three weeks.
ES Analysis: Last week I marked Significant Selling twice and Significant Buying once. On Friday I marked Aggressive Buying (green-at-top). The Value Area was overlapping/lower so this was not Effective Buying and therefore not convincing (possibly short covering) but never-the-less my #1 Rule tells me that new short trades are now eliminated for me at least until Significant Selling is marked again. In the ST as long as ES holds above the 30day poc at 1677 it remains in a strong price location. In the LT as long as ES holds above the 4month poc at 1645 it remains in a strong price location.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: w/e 07/05 chart printed 107.16, its lowest level since Sep 2011. TLT closed on Friday at 108.14. Momentum is negative and down. Still a weak looking chart.
Oil USO: Bulls would want to see chart hold 37.31, 1/2R off 2011 high, and Momentum turn back up.
Gold GLD: printed a 5week high last week. Momentum is positive and up. The low on 06/28 was the lowest since Aug 2010.
Silver SLV: Momentum is positive but turned down on Friday. w/e 06/28 chart printed its lowest level since Aug 2010.
Dollar Index: On 07/09 printed its highest level since July 2010 but declined sharply from there and is now printing below 82.73, the 12mn poc which is weaker price location. Momentum is negative. Dollar Bulls would want to see Momentum turn back and price above 82.73.
EURUSD: Has rallied sharply since testing the maj poc Support at 1.2777 on 07/09 and today has printed a 25day high. As long as 1.3065 holds (the 9mn poc) the chart is in a strong price location. Momentum is positive and up.
************ BREADTH
Breadth: The CP Market Timing System remained positive for all Major Market Charts.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 75%, Nasdaq 74%, R2000 79%, UK 75%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive. Numbers >80 are considered overbought.
*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
07/26: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was lower (for the second week) at 45.41%. Bears% was higher (for the second week) at 22.6%. Although the nett was lower again this week, the 4week ma of nett.reached 24.43 which is the highest since February 2012.
07/26: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was slightly lower at 51.5%, an eight week high. Bears% was also slightly lower at 19.6%, a nine week low. Watching the 4wk ma of nett relative to its peak in May.
07/26: Market Vane (advisers) poll was unchanged at 66. Four weeks ago the number reached 58 which was the lowest number since w/e 16th November.
07/26: The NAAIM number (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was sharply higher at 87.5, an extremely high number. The change from last week, +25.77, is the largest in my database representing an extreme increase in Bulls this week. This is a contrarian indicator.
Mutual Fund Flow:
07/26: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 3.25. On 07/10 the ratio reached 2.15 which was the lowest ratio since January 2012 and indicated real fear from the retail trader.
07/26: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund inflows of $5.4 billion in the week to 24th July. This has lifted the 4wk Flow number to $38.50 billion which is an extremely high number. which is a very high number. This is the highest 4wk Flow number in my database and exceeds the previous peak for this indicator at $29.6 billion which coincided with the price peak in May.
07/26: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund inflows of $3.3 billion in the week to 24th July.