Chartprofit eBook 27th September 2013
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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
The SP500 index closed on Friday below Mon-Wed Hi-Lo Range which indicates Active Selling on the weekly timeframe.
Index ETFs: Momentum (Price Osc) is now down now for all four ETFs.
ES analysis: The local poc level migrated back to 1685.50 on Friday, this is First Level Resistance. Pre-open ES is printing below that level in a weak price location. At current levels I need to see Significant Buying marked above 1685.50 before considering new longs.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: Printed a 31day high last week probing the 6mn poc at 107.22. Chart is currently printing below that level. Price above that level would put the chart in a much stronger location.
Oil USO: Printing below 37.31, the low of the Support/Resistance band in a weak price location. Momentum is negative and down.
Gold GLD: Remains below 134.17, the 12mn poc, in a weak price location. Momentum is negative but has turned up.
Dollar Index:. Is today printing at the important Support at 80.15 (major 1/2R and poc). Dollar Bulls would hope this holds, price printing time below this level would put the chart in an extremely weak location.
EURUSD: Recently printed its highest level since February. Momentum is up and positive.
*********** BREADTH
Breadth: CP Market Timing System turned negative for Nyse from positive, Nasdaq stayed positive and UK turned neutral from positive.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 62, Nasdaq 62, R2000 62, UK 54. Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
09/27: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was lower at 36.1% (from 45.1%). Bears% was slightly higher at 30.6%.
09/27: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was higher at 44.3%. Two weeks ago Bulls% reached 37.1% which was the lowest since June 2012. Bears% was slightly lower at 20.6.
09/27: Market Vane (advisers) poll was again unchanged at 62%.
09/27: The NAAIM number (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was higher at 80.47 (from 62.48) which is an eighteen week high, This is also a contrarian indicator.
Mutual Fund Flow:
09/27: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 4.09. The ratio reached 4.19 last week which was a 78day high (this is a contrarian indicator). The ratio reached as high as 5.43 at the market May high and as low as 2.15 on 07/10 (which was the lowest ratio since January 2012).
09/27: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund inflows of $3.5 Billion in the week to 25th September. Previous week’s inflow of $3.5 Billion was the largest single week inflow since November. The 4wk Flow number is now at $29.30 Billion which is in extreme high territory.
09/27: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund inflows of $545 Million in the week to 25th September.