Chartprofit eBook 29th March
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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
Supporting Charts:
– Bonds TLT: prints above the maj poc at 117.15. Momentum (although negative) is up.
+ Oil USO: is back in a stronger price location above 34.17, the 1/2R and now 3year poc. Momentum is positive and up.
? Gold GLD: still prints in a weak price location well below 161.0, the maj poc. But Momentum is positive and up. Appears to have found support in the area of the 12mn poc at 152.70.
– Silver SLV: Still in a weak price location printing just below 27.87, the 12mn poc.
– Dollar Index: on Wednesday printed its highest level since August last year and is currently printing above 82.75, the 2mn poc.
? EURUSD: The Major poc at 1.2777 was tested last week and has held – so far. Price below that level would be extremely weak price location. However there is a positive divergence between PriceOsc and Price. This would be confirmed if the indicator turns up.
imo these charts have a negative bias for equities
ES analysis:
Last week I marked Significant Buying twice and no Significant Selling. Last week (shortened) closed above Mon-Wed Hi-Lo Range which indicates Buyers Active on the weekly timframe. I have not marked Sellers as active on this timeframe in 2013. First indication of weakness in the ST would be Significant Sellers marked below 1550 (30day poc). First indication of weakness in the LT would be Significant Sellers marked below 1517.50 (3mn poc).
*********** BREADTH
Breadth: Chartprofit Market Timing System remained positive for all Major Market Charts.
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 69%, Nasdaq 63%, UK 73%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
03/29: AAII (public poll) reported Bulls% lower at 36.4% (from 38.9%). Highest Bulls% recently was 52.3% eight weeks ago. Bears% was lower at 28.7% (from 33.3%).
03/29: Investors Intelligence reported Bears% slightly higher at 19.6%. Last week’s 18.6% Bears was the lowest since mid May 2011. Bulls% was higher at 49.5% (from 47.4%).
03/29: Market Vane (advisers) poll. Higher at 67. Reached s 69 two weeks ago which was the highest since 2007.
03/29: The NAAIM number (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) came in slightly higher than last week at 80.06. Last week’s number at 79.77 was an eleven week low. The highest reading in the database being 104.25 eight weeks ago.
Mutual Fund Flow:
03/29: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 4.14. The 48day low for this number is 3.49. This indicator usually peaks with the market but currently it is at 50% of its twelve month range.
03/29: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund inflows of $740 Million in the week to 27th March. The four week flow number is at $17.55 Billion.
03/29: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund inflows of $2.3 Billion in the week to 27th March.