Chartprofit eBook 29th November 2013
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I don’t often mark trendlines on the charts but with the majority of Sentiment indicators registering extreme optimism (see below) ) I have marked Support trendlines on the four stock index ETFs. I would consider it important if all four of these break down.
*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
ES Analysis: Last week I marked no Significant Buying or Selling. The last five Value Areas have been printed above the minor poc at 1789 and the first sign of ST weakness would be Effective Selling marked below this level. LT weakness would be indicated by Effective Selling being marked below the 1758.50 poc. Buyers are still in control of the dayframe – at least for now.
*********** BREADTH
Breadth: The CP Market Timing system stayed neutral for Nyse, stayed positive for Nasdaq and R2000 and stayed negative for UK.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 66%, Nasdaq 68%, R2000 73%, UK 64%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT
I don’t often mark trendlines on the charts but with the majority of Sentiment indicators registering extreme optimism I have marked Support trendlines on the four stock index ETFs. I would consider it impoartant if all four of these break down.
Consensus Polls:
11/29: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was sharply higher at 47.3% (from 34.4%), close to the 49.2% it reached five weeks ago which was the highest since January. Bears% was slightly lower at 28.3%.
11/29: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was higher at 55.7% which is the highest since April 2011. Bears% was lower at 14.4% which is the lowest Bears% for years. The nett (Bulls minus Bears) is at 41.3 which is the highest single reading since April 2011 and the 4wkma of nett at 39.02 is an extreme reading, the highest for many years.
11/29: Market Vane (advisers) poll reached 67 which is the highest reading since late May.
11/29: The NAAIM number (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) reached 101.45. There is only one reading higher than this in the database and this was February’s 104.25).
Mutual Fund Flow:
11/29: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 5.42 almost equalling the high at 5.43 at the market May high. This indicator is registering extreme optimism which has historically been a warning for the market (contrarian).
11/29: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund inflows of $12 Billion in the week to 27th November. The 4wk Flow number was slightly higher at $15.90 Billion having reached $38.90 three weeks ago which was the second highest number in my database.
11/29: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund inflows of $1.7 Billion in the week to 27th November.