ChartProfit eBook 2nd August
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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
Friday closed above Mon-Wed Hi-Lo range indicating Buyers active once again on the weekly timeframe.
ES Analysis: On Friday Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) was marked. ES broke to a new high with no Response yet from the Significant Sellers. In the ST as long as ES holds above the minor (15day poc) at 1682.50 it is in a strong price location. The distribution pattern suggests possible Target Resistance around 1714 should ES reach that level.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: Last week chart printed its lowest level since Aug 2011. The 4mn poc migrated to 107.22 and pre-open today chart prints below this level which is weak price location.
Oil USO: The major poc migrated to 37.93 and chart closed the week at that level. Bulls would want to see time printed above that poc and Momentum turning up.
Gold GLD: The June low was the lowest print since Aug 2010. Rallied from there but I would want to see chart printing above the 12mn poc at 134.17 before assuming further strength.
Dollar Index: Sampled on a 30minute basis the major poc migrated higher to 82.73. Currently in ST weak price location below that level. Bulls would want to see price printing time above that poc.
EURUSD: Has rallied strongly since testing the maj poc Support at 1.2777 on 07/09 and last week printed a 28day high. As long as 1.3065 holds (9mn poc) the chart is in a strong price location.
*********** BREADTH
Breadth: The CP Market Timing System remained positive for all Major Market Charts.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 75%, Nasdaq 74%, R2000 76%, UK 87%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive. Numbers >80 are considered overbought.
*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
07/26: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was lower (for the second week) at 45.41%. Bears% was higher (for the second week) at 22.6%. Although the nett was lower again this week, the 4week ma of nett.reached 24.43 which is the highest since February 2012.
07/26: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was slightly lower at 51.5%, an eight week high. Bears% was also slightly lower at 19.6%, a nine week low. Watching the 4wk ma of nett relative to its peak in May.
07/26: Market Vane (advisers) poll was unchanged at 66. Four weeks ago the number reached 58 which was the lowest number since w/e 16th November.
07/26: The NAAIM number (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was sharply higher at 87.5, an extremely high number. The change from last week, +25.77, is the largest in my database representing an extreme increase in Bulls this week. This is a contrarian indicator.
Mutual Fund Flow:
08/02: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 3.5 which is a 29day high but to put that in persective; the ratio reached as high as 5.43 at the market May high and as low as 2.15 on 07/10 (which was the lowest ratio since January 2012). With the market higher than the May high the ratio has been slow to climb.
08/02: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund inflows of $6.6 billion in the week to 31st July. This has lifted the 4wk Flow number to $40.4 billion which is the highest 4wk Flow number in my database.
08/02: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund inflows of $2.4 billion in the week to 31st July.