Chartprofit eBook 4th October 2013
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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
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The SP500 closed on Friday within Mon-Wed Hi-Lo Range which indicates no bias on the weekly timeframe.
Index ETFs: Momentum (Price Osc) is down now for all four ETFs.
ES analysis: Buyers were active twice last week and yet price action was lower than the previous week. This indicates that the Buying Activity was Ineffective on the weekly timeframe suggesting that Sellers may be Resting and forcing a response from the Buyers. This can be a weak pattern if Sellers become Active again. I repeat Friday’s comment “Significant Selling marked below 1685.50 would suggest further weakness, Bulls of any timeframe would want to see ES recover that level asap.”
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: Recently probed the 6mn poc at 107.22 but has not yet exceeded this level. Momentum (although postive) has turned down.
Oil USO: Closed the week at 37.31, the low of the Support/Resistance band. I’m not interested in considering the long side of this chart until price can print time above 37.93, the maj poc.
Gold GLD: Printed a 39dy low last week and remains below 134.17, the 12mn poc, in a weak price location.
Dollar Index: Printing below the important level at 80.15 (major 1/2R and poc). Dollar Bulls would want to see price printing back above this level asap.
EURUSD: Last week printed its highest level since February.
*********** BREADTH
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Breadth: CP Market Timing System remained negative for Nyse, stayed positive for Nasdaq and turned negative (from neutral) for UK.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 62%, Nasdaq 63%, R2000 59%, UK 48%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT
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Consensus Polls:
10/04: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was slightly higher at 37.8%. Bears% was slightly lower at 30.1%.
10/04: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was higher at 46.4%. Three weeks ago Bulls% reached 37.1% which was the lowest since June 2012. Bears% was lower at 18.6.
10/04: Market Vane (advisers) poll down slightly at 61%.
10/04: The NAAIM number (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was lower at 73.13. Previous week’s 80.47 was an eighteen week high.
Mutual Fund Flow:
10/04: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 4.20. Tuesday’s ratio at 4.54 was the highest ratio since 06/11. This is a contrarian indicator. The ratio reached as high as 5.43 at the market May high and as low as 2.15 on 07/10 (which was the lowest ratio since January 2012).
10/04: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund outflows of $3.1 Billion in the week to 2nd October. Despite a net outflow this week the 4wk Flow number is at an extremely high of $31.30 Billion.
10/04: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund outflows of -$292 Million in the week to 2nd October.