Chartprofit eBook 5th July
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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
Friday closed above Mon-Wed Hi-Lo Range which indicates Buyers Active on this timeframe.
The four stock index ETFs have cleared their Resistance (SPY 162.40; DIA 150.14; QQQ 72.05; IWM 97.87). As long as these levels now hold as Support, charts are in a much stronger price location.
ES Analysis: Last week I marked Wednesday’s Responsive Buying (green-at-bottom) on Wednesday and Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) on Friday. No Significant Selling was marked. A further postive would be ES holding above the 3mn poc at 1628.00 which is now First Level Support.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: on Friday printed its lowest level since Sep 2011. Momentum is negative and has turned down.
Oil USO: on Friday printed its highest level since Sep 2012. Momentum is positive and up.
Gold GLD: w/e 06/28 chart printed its lowest level since Aug 2010.
Silver SLV: Has been weak since it double-failed at its maj poc in January and w/e 06/28 chart printed its lowest level since Aug 2010.
Dollar Index: Held major poc support at 80.15 in June and is now approaching the May high.
EURUSD: Weak price location since w/e 06/28 when it broke below 1.3081, 1/2R off April low. Sharply lower at the end of last week to a 33day low. Next Support is the maj poc at 1.2777
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*********** BREADTH
Chartprofit Market Timing System: Nyse stayed negative, Nasdaq stayed postive, R2000 turned positive (from negative) and UK turned neutral (from negative).
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 51%, Nasdaq 68%, R2000 69%, UK 61%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive. Numbers >80 are considered overbought.
*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
07/05: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was sharply higher at 42% (from 30.3%). Bears% was sharply lower at 23.8% (rom 35.2%). The nett is therefore 18.2, up 23.1 points from last week’s -4.9, which represents an extreme increase in bullish sentiment measured over one week.
07/05: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was higher at 43.8%. Up from last week’s 41.7% which was the lowest since w/e 30th November. Bears% was lower at 20.8%. Down from last week’s 25% which was the highest since w/e 7th December. The nett (Bulls-Bears) is therefore 23, up from last week’s 16.7 which was the lowest since w/e 30th November. Six week’s ago the nett reached 36.4 which was the highest since May 2011.
07/05: Market Vane (advisers) poll was sharply lower at 60. Up slightly from last week’s 58 which was the lowest number since w/e 16th November.
07/05: The NAAIM number (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was higher at 39.9. Last wek’s 34.21 was the lowest number since June 1st 2012.
Mutual Fund Flow:
07/05: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 2.82. Previous week the ratio reached a multi-month low at 2.62. The market has rallied from that point but the ratio is not much off its low and from a contrarian p.o.v. this is usually a positive in the ST.
07/05: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund outflows of $4.7 billion in the week to 3rd July. The 4wk Flow number is $1.99 Billion, up from previous week’s $ -5.01 Billion which was the lowest since w/e 23rd Nov last year.
07/05: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund inflows of $3 billion in the week to 3rd July.