Chartprofit eBook 6th September 2013
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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
SPY: Friday closed above (just) Mon-Wed Hi-Lo range indicating Active Buying on the weekly timeframe.
from pre-open comment Monday 9th September
ST ES analysis has improved. LT analysis has not. On Wednesday last week the minor (26day) poc migrated to 1638 and on Friday the session low came in at that level with Responsive Buying being marked, see chart. The last three Value Areas have printed above that (now proven) upport and if 1638 holds at the start of this week I will take it as a sign of strenth in the ST. Aggressive Buying above that level would be a further postive.
Index ETFs relative to 1/2R off August high: SPY high on Friday just below 167.00 IWM high on Friday at 102.90. Note that QQQ is relatively strong and printed above its August high on Friday.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: Chart stayed in a weak price location last week below the Resistance at 107.22, the 4mn poc and prints close to the August low.
Oil USO: Now printing above both the 1/2R off 2011 high at 37.31 and 37.93 its maj poc in a stronger price location. Momentum is positive.
Gold GLD: Chart is currently printing (just) below 134.17, the 12mn poc. Momentum (although positive) is down.
Dollar Index: Currently in weak price location below the major poc at 82.73. Bulls would want to see price recover that level.
EURUSD: Currently printing in a weak price location below 1.3228, the 1/2R off Feb high. There is Support at the 1.3063 poc.
*********** BREADTH
Breadth: CP Market Timing System stayed negative for Nyse, stayed neutral for Nasdaq and stayed negative for R2000.
Stocks>50dyma numbers need to improve: Nyse 45%, Nasdaq 49% R2000 41% Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus:
09/06: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was higher again at 35.5%. Two week?s ago Bulls% reached 29% which was a seventeen week low. Bears% was slightly higher at 31.3%. Two week?s ago Bears% reached 42.9% which was an eighteen week high. The nett at 4.2 and the 4wk ma of nett at -0.15 are in the middle of their six month range.
09/06: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was lower for the fourth week at 37.1% which is the lowest since June 2012. Bears% was almost unchanged at 23.7%. The nett at 13.4 is the lowest since November. The 4wk ma of nett has now broken the low it reached at the market low in June and is indicating the highest level of pessimism since late last year, possible overdone (contrarian).
09/06: Market Vane (advisers) poll was higher at 58%. Previous week’s 56% was a 12month low. The 4wk ma at 59 is also now at a twelve month low.
09/06: The NAAIM number (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was slightly lower at 42.26 (from 46.92).
Mutual Fund Flow:
09/06: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio finished the week at 2.98 which is a 33day low. The ratio reached as high as 5.43 at the market May high and as low as 2.15 on 07/10 (which was the lowest ratio since January 2012).
09/06: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund outflows of -$5.1 Billion in the week to 4th September. Five weeks ago the 4wk Flow number reached $40.4 billion which was the highest in my database but this has fallen sharply to a 4wk outflow of -$12.69 Billion, the lowest for more than a year.
09/06: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund inflows of $782 Million in the week to 4th September.