The commitments of traders data is up to date and the C.O.T. charts are once again included.
Chartprofit eBook 8th November 2013
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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
SPY closed the week within Mon-Wed Hi-Lo Range which does not indicate a bias on this timeframe.
ES Analysis: Following Thursday’s Active Selling, Friday saw an immediate Response from the Buyers. A day of Responsive and Aggressive Selling followed by a day of Responsive and Aggressive Buying is rare. Also, Thursday’s red-at-bottom low was not tested the following day as it usually is. We currently have Sellers Responding above 1770 and Buyers Responding below 1745. Both looking to take control of the dayframe with the local poc right in the middle of that range at 1757.50. Price acceptance (time) at 1770 or above would indicate higher and acceptance at 1745 or below would indicate lower.
*********** BREADTH
Breadth: CP Market timing System turned negative (from neutral) for Nyse, turned negative (from neutral) for Nasdaq, remained negative for R2000 and turned negative (from positive) for UK.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 64%, Nasdaq 58%, R2000 61%, UK 69%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
11/08: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was slightly higher at 45.5%. Two weeks ago Bulls% at 49.2% was the highest since January. Bears% was also slightly higher at 21.9%. Two week’s ago Bears% at 17.6% was the lowest since January. The 4wk ma at 25.05 has now exceeded the level we have been watching which was the high in July.
11/08: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was higher at 55.2 (from 52.6%). This equalled a reading in May and is the highest since April 2011. Bears% was slightly lower at 15.6% which is the lowest Bears% for years. The nett (Bulls minus Bears) at 39.6 is the highest single reading
11/08: Market Vane (advisers) poll was unchanged at 65
11/08: The NAAIM number (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was lower at 84.81. However, the previous week’s 94.59 was the highest reading since February’s104.25 which was the highest in the database.
Mutual Fund Flow:
11/08: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 4.63. Tuesday’s ratio at 5.1 was the highest since May 28th. The ratio reached as high as 5.43 at the market May high and as low as 2.15 on 07/10 (which was the lowest ratio since January 2012).nuary 2012).
11/08: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund outflows of $2.0 Billion in the week to 6th November. However the 4wk Flow number was higher at $38.90. There is only one higher 4wk Flow number in my database and the was when it reached $40.40 Billion in early August.
11/08: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund inflows of $3.0 Billion in the week to 6th November.