Now following Dec contract. On Thursday there was a rejected test of the 3957 (2mn) Support (arrowed) – ES rallied from there and ended the week strong. There is LT Resistance at 4152 (7mn). Price above that level would indicate strength on that timeframe.

On Thursday there was an early, rejected test of the 3957 (2mn) Support, see yesterday’s note, and ES rallied above the Resistance at 3984 (1/2R off June low). That’s a solid performance on the daily timeframe. On the longer timeframe Resistance remains at 4152 (7mn).

ES testing the Resistance at 3984, the 1/2R off the June low (dashed line). Time above that level would be a stronger ST position. Interestingly, the 2mn migrated to 3957 and is potential Support today. Failure here and downside target is still 3816. LT: Price below 4152 (7mn Control) = Weak position.

ES failed to recover 4152 (7mn Control) late Aug and same now with 3984, the 1/2R off the June low (dashed line on chart). Weak price action & weak position. I expect 3816 to be tested if ES remains below 3984.

LT: ES is in a weak position below 4152 (7mn Control). First Level Resistance is 3984, the 1/2R off the June low (dashed line). ST: If ES fails to hold minor Support 3932.5 (1mn Control) I would expect a test of 3816.

ES has broken below 3984, the 1/2R off the June low (dashed line) and is now in a further weakened position. This level is now Resistance. Always watch the 1/2R off a low.

ES remains in a weak position below 4152 (7mn Control). On Tuesday price was accepted (time) close to the VAL at 4029 and ES fell further, see yesterday’s note. Today a quick rejection of a test below 3960 might set up a rally but I’m not interested in longs at current levels unless ES prints […]

Firstly, please see yesterday’s note (on chart). ES is in a weak position if it prints below 4152 (7mn Control). The Value Area Low of the current price distribution (that began in July) is at 4029 – and could Support price for a bounce back to 4152. If not, and price is accepted (time) close […]

Value Area, 08/26, was generated below the 4147-4157 Major Control area, which puts ES in a weak position, see Friday’s note. If Bears are able to push price lower from here, away from the Control, it would be Aggressive on the longer time-frame and ominous. Bulls need to see ES back above 4157.

Surprisingly, for me at least, ES generated a Value Area entirely above the 4147-4157 band, see yesterday’s note. I thought we’d see a tighter range closer to 4152 until Jerome Powell spoke today. Aggressive Buying (green) was also marked yesterday. Clearly, time below 4147 would now be the disruption point for the Bulls.