Firstly, please see yesterday’s note (on chart). ES is in a weak position if it prints below 4152 (7mn Control). The Value Area Low of the current price distribution (that began in July) is at 4029 – and could Support price for a bounce back to 4152. If not, and price is accepted (time) close […]

Value Area, 08/26, was generated below the 4147-4157 Major Control area, which puts ES in a weak position, see Friday’s note. If Bears are able to push price lower from here, away from the Control, it would be Aggressive on the longer time-frame and ominous. Bulls need to see ES back above 4157.

Surprisingly, for me at least, ES generated a Value Area entirely above the 4147-4157 band, see yesterday’s note. I thought we’d see a tighter range closer to 4152 until Jerome Powell spoke today. Aggressive Buying (green) was also marked yesterday. Clearly, time below 4147 would now be the disruption point for the Bulls.

expecting ES to stay within or close to the 4147-4157 band until fireworks (or not) tomorrow.

There has been some movement of the Major Control depending on the time-frame used. On the daily it’s at 4147, on the 30-minute it’s at 4157 – hence the shaded band between these two levels on the chart. This is big picture though so Significant Selling below or Significant Buying above would be important information. […]

As anticipated, the 4152 Support (7mn Control) was tested – also Significant Selling (red) was marked on Monday which eliminates the long side for me, at least until Significant Buying (green) is marked again. My best guess is that 4152 will attract time before another directional move is started but currently ES prints below that […]

ST: Friday’s RTH close was below 4257.50 (most recent Buying Day’s Low – red dash on chart). As per previous notes, I therefore expect a retest of the 4152 Support (7mn Control). LT: Time below 4152 would not support a bullish outcome.

Pre RTH Open, ES is printing close to 4250. There is Resistance at 4272.0 today (10day Control). As per previous notes, a RTH close below 4257.50 (last Friday’s Buying Day Low – red dash) would be first mechanical sign of weakness in the ST. Should that happen I would expect a retest of the 4152 […]

Buyers have been in control. Significant Selling (red) has been absent since 07/12. On Monday I marked Significant Buying (green) again. First Mechanical sign of weakness in the ST would be a RTH close below 4257.50 which is that Buying Day’s Low. Should that happen I would expect a retest of the 4152 Support (7mn […]

On Monday I marked Significant Buying (green) again. First Mechanical sign of weakness in the ST would be a RTH close below 4257.50 which is that Buying Day’s Low. Should that happen I would expect a retest of the 4152 Support (7mn Control).